The U.S. press has given the presidential election to the PRI candidate, Enrique Peña Nieto, citing poll results. An unexpected anti-PRI student movement, however, has undermined the impression of inevitability of a return of the PRI to power after twelve years in the opposition.

The real dynamics of the Mexican presidential election of 2012 are found online, in the social media. In response to the abuses of the election of 2006, Mexican authorities ruled that negative advertisements were forbidden. Anyone interested in the present electoral cycle that has seen, on YouTube, any of the many search results for "Hitler and Pena Nieto" will realize how this rule has been circumvented online, with a mixture of venom and humor. Even the promotional clips may be presented as negative, as in the one with the title (in Spanish) of "Why el Peje [López Obrador] Should Not Win in 2012.”

The present report takes the position that the presidential race of 2012 is between the PRI and PRD, and its purpose is to prepare the reader for either outcome.